In 2018, Apple famously became the first publicly traded company in the U.S. to hit a $1 trillion valuation. Since then, several more have hit that milestone, including several of Apple’s peers in the tech industry: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta Platforms. This group remains highly exclusive, but many more corporations will join in the coming years. One of them could be Shopify (NYSE: SHOP), an e-commerce specialist currently sporting a market cap of $135 billion.
Shopify needs a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of at least 14.3% in the next 15 years to become a trillion-dollar stock. That’s not an easy task, but let’s find out why Shopify can pull it off.
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Shopify was created to address a real pain point for businesses trying to open online storefronts, which sometimes had to deal with design challenges, lack of flexibility, and other issues. Shopify changed that. The e-commerce specialist offers practically everything merchants need all in one spot, from hundreds of customizable templates and payment processing to inventory, social media tools, marketing, and more.
Further, there is a built-in system that gives merchants many more options. Shopify’s app store is home to thousands of apps that cater to its customers’ ultra-specific needs. Since its 2015 IPO and with co-founder Tobias Lütke at the helm, Shopify has grown at a CAGR well above what it would need in the next 15 years to become a trillion-dollar stock.
SHOP Total Return Level data by YCharts.
There is some evidence in the academic literature that founder-led companies in the S&P 500 outperform the rest. It’s hard to argue that point when looking at the list of trillion-dollar companies. Nvidia and Meta Platforms are still headed by their co-founders. Amazon was also founder-led until relatively recently, and Microsoft and Apple did have long stints with their respective founders (or co-founders) as CEOs before they stepped down.
Shopify following the same blueprint is no guarantee of success, but it’s worth pointing out that the e-commerce specialist has made it its goal to become a 100-year company. Few can come anywhere close to that, but Shopify is off to a pretty good start.
One issue Shopify had was a lack of profitability. The company recently made some changes to its business that are helping on that front. Shopify sold its logistics business, a low-margin unit that was harming its bottom line. Since then, the company’s margins and profits have looked much better. In the third quarter, Shopify’s revenue grew by 26% year over year to $2.2 billion. Shopify’s net income was up 15% year over year to $828 million.
