Bajaj Auto Ltd. has trimmed its growth outlook for India’s two-wheeler industry in the middle of a lucrative festive season—much to the surprise of analysts and dealers alike.
According to the Pulsar maker, growth in the world’s largest two-wheeler industry is likely to moderate to 5% in fiscal 2025 from 5–8% predicted earlier. That stems from a weaker-than-expected festive season demand.
“We had said that the industry is in the 5–8% zone. I would still say maybe not 8%, but probably closer to 5%,” Rakesh Sharma, executive director at Bajaj Auto, said during a post-earnings call on Wednesday. “The entry-level market is in decline, and the 125cc+ is showing 5–6% growth. So, overall, it is coming to 1–2% growth right now. That trend is very clear now.”
“We thought Dussehra would be at 6–8%, but it is not that much. It is 1–2%, almost similar to last year’s… I don’t think it (growth) will be in the high digits of 8% or so. We will be lucky if we see 3–5% growth for the industry in this festive season.”
That outlook is stark, for it comes amid a revival of sorts for India’s two-wheeler industry since the pandemic blew out sales in the hinterland.
In July–September 2024, Indian two-wheeler makers dispatched 51,79,349 motorcycles and scooters as against 45,98,442 units a year earlier—a 12.6% growth year-on-year, according to data sourced from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.
In the first half of fiscal 2025, two-wheeler sales grew 16.3% YoY to 1,01,64,980 units as against 87,39,406 units a year ago. This is the first time since 2019 that half-yearly sales have crossed the one-crore mark.
Bajaj Auto itself has been a beneficiary of the revival.
In July-September 2024, the company’s two-wheeler sales—including exports—increased 17.19% YoY to 10,33,208 units as against 8,81,583 units in the year-ago period, according to . Such has been the demand for motorcycles and scooters that even its electric scooter—an also-ran in the EV space for nearly five years—clocked 1 lakh units in the three months ending Sept. 30.
The outperformance was reflected in Bajaj Auto’s record-setting second quarter, where nearly all financial metrics were at their historical highs.
