Bitcoin sinks after last week's rally but still posts a winning September

Bitcoin and crypto stocks retreated on the final trading day of September, following a rally last week, but the cryptocurrency still posted its second winning September in a row.

The price of bitcoin was last lower by 3.7% at $63,451.12, after briefly reclaiming the $65,000 level last week, according to Coin Metrics. In crypto stocks, Coinbase slid 6.8% and MicroStrategy fell 4.3%.

For the month, bitcoin is on pace to finish its strongest September ever with an 6.9% gain and its second positive September — historically the cryptocurrency’s weakest month — in a row.

Coinbase is poised for a 2.8% monthly loss and is down nearly 18% for the quarter. Some analysts see that downtrend continuing in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is up 27% for the month and 25% for the quarter.

Analysts have warned about overbought conditions as bitcoin last week climbed nearly 5% in the five days ending Sept. 27, as net inflows into global crypto exchange-traded products accelerated to their highest level since mid-July. During the same period, Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained 12% and 21%, respectively.

The combined net buying volume of U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week (16,774 BTC) exceeded a typical one-month supply of newly mined bitcoin (13,500), according to Bitwise-owned ETC Group. This was largely due to the policy reversal by the People’s Bank of China, the firm said.

On Monday Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spooked investors in mid-afternoon trading, cautioning that although more rate cuts are coming, the central bank does not have a preset path. Investors are also bracing for strikes at ports up and down the East Coast and along the Gulf Coast after midnight Monday, which could shake the economy ahead of the holiday season, as well as ISM Manufacturing data Tuesday.

The market is heading into a seasonally strong quarter for crypto and risk assets broadly.

Bitcoin’s narrative is often debated — whether it is a store of value or a risk asset — but its correlation is currently closer to that of the S&P 500 than to gold, and investors expect it to benefit from rate cuts, clarity following the U.S. presidential election and seasonal and favorable market conditions translating into greater flows into crypto ETFs.