Responding to a journalist’s question about the periodic political bombast about Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) “being soon restored to India”, Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Upendra Dwivedi, aptly and tactfully, pointed out, that should the government desire such an “end state” or outcome, not only must the whole nation be prepared to go to war, but the armed forces must also be adequately “empowered” or equipped for such an ambitious undertaking.
Given this backdrop, the question arises: What is achieved by often heard rhetoric of this kind — whether in the context of PoK or the bizarre notion of Akhand Bharat (Greater India)? Is there insufficient appreciation at the political level that short-sharp revanchist wars of territorial conquest/re-conquest are no longer possible? And are we oblivious of the fact that such belligerent statements, even if meant for electoral gains, evoke deep resentment amongst our neighbours and impose a diplomatic cost?
An early indication of this strategic myopia came in December 2001 after the Pakistan-inspired terror strike on Parliament. India’s unprecedented general mobilisation involving its million-plus armed forces, was met by Pakistan’s counter-mobilisation, resulting in a tense, eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation. Anecdotally, it has been said, that when the Army chief asked for specific orders about the “end state” desired by the government, he was told at the highest echelon: “Baad mein batayenge” (you will be told later). A year later, both sides de-mobilised, with no change in the security situation, and the Army chief no wiser!
This seemed to be an affirmation of former Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s priceless comment, “When I don’t make a decision… I think about it and make a decision not to make a decision.” The fast-changing current international environment and the situation in India’s close neighbourhood do not brook such a relaxed and lackadaisical approach to national security any longer. The resumption of the US presidency by a ruthlessly self-centred Donald Trump has cast the world into a state of entropy. His inimical stance towards United Nations (UN) organs, the European Union and climate crisis agreements, his threat of invoking “tariff-wars”, and his isolationist obsession with making “America great again”, are precursors of the storm that threatens the existing world order. As he reaches out to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, over imposition of an armistice on Ukraine, and to Iran over its nuclear programme, will Trump also strike a deal with Beijing, leaving India out on a limb?
Even without direct Trumpian intervention, India’s security concerns are mounting. An increasingly powerful and belligerent China not only poses a direct territorial threat, but has also circumscribed India, strategically as well as economically. While all of India’s neighbours, with the exception of Bhutan, have jumped on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) bandwagon, many of their bilateral relationships with India have soured. At the same time, China’s comprehensive support to its South Asian proxy, Pakistan, has encouraged the latter’s belligerence against India.
As the world’s most populous nation and a nuclear-armed military power with an economy expected to attain podium position by 2047, the future contours of a Viksit Bharat are becoming discernible. But, even as the spectre of Beijing’s military and technological dominance looms menacingly over us, India’s growing dependence on China for vital imports of electronics, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and rare earths contributes not just to a huge trade-deficit but also a significant economic and strategic vulnerability.
An old maxim of international relations that will help India weather the coming storm, says that “nations have neither eternal allies, nor perpetual enemies, but only permanent interests, which they are duty-bound to protect”. Safeguarding its vital interests would require adroit diplomacy, juggling many balls simultaneously — the US, Russia, China, Europe and Japan — while ensuring that the neighbours are not alienated. India’s approbation of Trumpian policies, and its diplomatic ambivalence about the ongoing slaughter in Gaza may call into question its traditionally acknowledged leadership of the Global South.
Closer home, the biggest challenge to preservation of its cherished strategic autonomy is India’s technological and industrial backwardness, which has obliged it to become abjectly reliant on foreign sources — mainly Russia, Ukraine, Israel, France and South Africa — for import of military hardware. Having missed the industrial revolution, independent India leap-frogged from being an agrarian economy to the status of service economy, but unlike China, failed to conceive a national vision for self-reliance in the vital area of defence production.
This omission is essentially rooted in India’s non-serious approach to science and technology (S&T), exemplified by its meagre investment in research and development (R&D). As a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), India devotes only 0.64% to R&D, against China’s 2.41%, but in actual terms, China spends 20 times as much as India. Little wonder that China is not only a world-leader in military hardware production, but is also a global power in Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, aeronautics, space and undersea exploration.
Apart from sub-par investment, both by public and private sectors, another significant cause of deviation from a focused pursuit of S&T has been the prominence accorded to religiosity in all aspects of India’s political and public life. Some see the resultant, faith-based polarisation as delivering benefits in terms of “national unity” and consolidation of political/electoral constituencies. Be that as it may, the excessive importance accorded to issues of faith has brought along with it pseudo-science, superstition and mythology, distracting our youth from the single-minded pursuit of a “scientific temper” as mandated by our Constitution.
It is not its GDP and population that will mark India as a global power, but its achievements in the fields of science, technology and industry. One hopes that political aspirations having been met, the nation will be able to resume the resolute pursuit of S&T which is the only path to attainment of great-power status. It is in this context that PM Modi’s inspiring slogan of aatmanirbharta must be faithfully implemented, not just in name but also by investing in R&D and encouraging the spirit of genuine, innovation that our talented youth is capable of.
Admiral Arun Prakash (retd) is a former chief of Naval Staff of India. The views expressed are personal
