Tesla has long been known for pushing the boundaries of automotive technology, promising innovations before they are fully realized. One of its most ambitious claims was that a simple software update would eventually transform its vehicles into fully autonomous cars.
However, as time has passed, it has become evident that the HW3 computer—the system that powers Tesla’s Full-Self Driving (FSD)—is not powerful enough to achieve this goal.
Now, Tesla faces a significant challenge: to fulfill its promise, it must replace these outdated systems. But not every Tesla owner will benefit from this move, leading to growing frustration among customers.
A Vision of the Future That Outpaced Technology
Since 2016, Tesla has been offering customers the option to pre-purchase FSD, selling the idea that self-driving capability would soon be unlocked through over-the-air updates. For those who believed in this vision, the FSD package—which started at a few thousand dollars and has since risen to $15,000—seemed like an investment in the future.
However, as Tesla’s self-driving software evolved, engineers realized that the HW3 hardware simply doesn’t have the processing power required to support the latest AI-driven advancements. As a result, Tesla has no choice but to replace these systems with the more advanced HW4.
A Selective Upgrade: Who Gets the New Hardware?
Elon Musk himself confirmed the issue in a recent shareholder meeting, admitting:
“The truth is, we will have to replace all HW3 computers in vehicles where FSD was purchased.”
This statement clarifies that only customers who have already paid for FSD will receive a free HW4 upgrade. However, this decision leaves out a significant group of Tesla owners:
- Those who did not purchase FSD when they bought their vehicle
- Owners who were hoping to add FSD later
- Customers with HW3-equipped vehicles who may want the best possible self-driving experience
For these individuals, Tesla has not yet announced whether the upgrade will be available at an additional cost.
It’s Not Just the Computer—Cameras Will Need Upgrades Too
The transition to HW4 isn’t as simple as swapping out a single component. Many Tesla models with HW3 also have older camera hardware, which may not be fully compatible with HW4’s improved vision processing.
This means that some Tesla owners—especially those with pre-2023 models—could find themselves stuck with outdated cameras, even if their HW3 computer is upgraded. This raises the question:
- Will Tesla offer free camera upgrades along with HW4?
- Or will customers have to pay out of pocket for the improvements?
Tesla has yet to clarify its policy on this, leaving many customers in the dark.
Can HW4 Actually Deliver True Full-Self Driving?
Even with HW4, a major concern remains: will this upgrade truly enable full autonomy? Tesla’s long-term vision includes “FSD Unsupervised,“ a version of its software that does not require driver attention. However, this system is not yet available, and the timeline keeps shifting.
The latest reports suggest that FSD Unsupervised could launch in June 2025, but this date is far from certain. Even if HW4 is installed in all FSD-equipped Teslas, the software might still not be capable of achieving the hands-free, fully autonomous experience that many customers were promised.
What If HW4 Isn’t Enough?
If Tesla’s AI engineers determine that HW4 itself is still not powerful enough, another upgrade could be necessary—likely HW5. This would put Tesla in an even more difficult position:
- Would HW4 owners need yet another hardware replacement?
- Would this next upgrade be free or paid?
- Could Tesla’s FSD software ever reach full autonomy with just hardware upgrades?
These unanswered questions create uncertainty for Tesla customers who have already invested thousands of dollars into a promise that has yet to be fulfilled.
A Costly Challenge for Tesla, but a Bigger One for Its Reputation
The decision to replace HW3 with HW4 represents a massive financial undertaking for Tesla. With millions of vehicles on the road, swapping out hardware for every FSD customer will be a logistical and economic challenge. However, the real cost may be Tesla’s credibility.
Tesla’s approach to selling FSD—charging for a feature before it was fully developed—has worked as a marketing strategy, but it now raises serious ethical concerns. Customers who trusted the company’s promises may begin to question Tesla’s transparency, especially if future upgrades come with additional costs.
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