September in the wholesale vehicle market was a departure from the earlier summer months, as cooler temperatures brought lower prices. But look for a fairly steady market in the final few months of 2024, industry analysts said in reports this week.
Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for September came in at 203.0, which was down 0.5% month-over-month and 5.3% softer than September 2023, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality.
Unadjusted, the Manheim index was down 0.1% month-over-month and off 4.9% year-over-year.
“Wholesale values reversed course and turned negative over the month of September after rising in July and August,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in an analysis.
“Non-adjusted prices usually decline in September, and while that occurred this year, prices fell less than they normally do for the month. Retail used days’ supply remains at lower levels than the last few years, and off-lease maturities will continue to decline,” Robb said. “The new normal is likely that we continue to see wholesale depreciation; but it may be more muted than the market is accustomed to for the rest of the year.”
Meanwhile, Black Book’s seasonally adjusted Used Vehicle Retention Index came in at 146.3 for September, which was up 0.2% month-over-month, but down 8.2% year-over-year.
Black Book vice president of analytics Laura Wehunt said in an analysis, “Throughout September, the market remained stable, with increasing values in many mainstream segments. Although incentives have risen, limited supply, due to record low leasing three years ago, has kept the market steady. As we enter the fourth quarter, we’re closely monitoring several market impacts, including the aftermath of Hurricane Helene’s flooding, the port workers’ strike affecting ports on the East Coast and Gulf, and changes in interest rates, among other potential disruptions.”
Along those lines, Cox analysis said they’re watching for indications of significant automotive impact from Helene.
“The Manheim team is monitoring activity closely to see if patterns emerge that appear similar to those measured after major storms such as Hurricane Harvey, Sandy and Katrina,” the company said in the report. “ So far, data suggest no surge in demand nor increase in vehicle values, but wholesale and used retail supply is currently tight, so conditions are right for wholesale values to increase (or decline less than normal for this time of year).”
A glimpse of how the wholesale market is faring in October can be found in Black Book’s Market Insights report from Tuesday, which monitored activity in week ending Oct. 5.
Overall prices were down 0.30%, compared to a 0.19% decline the prior week but less steep than the 0.44% average decline for the same weeks of 2017-2019.
“Last week saw accelerated depreciation and increased market uncertainty, stemming from unclear factors like the duration of the dock workers’ strike and speculation about the extent of vehicle flooding caused by Hurricane Helene,” Black Book said in the report.
“Floor prices rose at many auction locations, leading to more no-sales. Although the dock workers’ strike has concluded with a tentative agreement, the full impact of flooded vehicles in the Southeast is yet to be determined.”
