Jet fuel usage is bucking China’s shaky oil demand outlook and is on track to become the only transportation fuel with demand upside over the next few years. Diesel and gasoline demand are peaking as greater penetration of electric vehicles and LNG-fueled trucks as well as slowing economic growth stall road fuels demand. Jet consumption is expected to climb through 2035 at least, with the majority of China’s 1.4 billion population yet to take their first flight. A senior researcher at a Chinese state company sees jet demand rising by 13.5% this year, 4.6% annually over the 2025-30 period and 3.4% per year from 2030-35. By contrast, reductions in China’s gasoline and gasoil demand will accelerate in the 2030s. The International Energy Agency expects China’s jet demand to break through 1 million barrels per day in 2026 and reach 1.2 million b/d by 2030.
