NASA has said the chances of a “city-killing” asteroid hitting Earth in eight years have risen again.
The risk is now 3.1% or 1 in 32 odds for an impact on December 22, 2032, according to the US space agency. It represents a five percentage point rise on the previous 2.6% risk.
Based on measurements of asteroid 2024 YR4’s brightness, experts estimate its size to be between 130ft (40m) to 300ft (91m), roughly the size of a football pitch.
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is due to observe the asteroid in March in a bid to better assess the asteroid’s size.
The asteroid is not big enough to wipe out human civilization but could wipe out a major city, leading to its being dubbed a “city-killer”.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s potential impact corridor includes the eastern Pacific, the north of South America, Africa, the Arabian peninsula and South Asia.
NASA has described the asteroid’s probability of hitting Earth as “extremely low”, though observations are set to continue until April, after which it will be too faint to detect from ground telescopes until about June 2028.
The space agency has said previously that it is possible asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard as has happened with many other objects which have appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list.
However, NASA has also warned it is possible the asteroid’s impact probability will continue to rise.
Bruce Betts, Chief Scientist at the non-profit Planetary Society, said: “Naturally, when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy and good.”
In remarks quoted by MailOnline, he explained that as astronomers collect more data, the probability will “likely” edge up before quickly dropping to zero.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported on December 27 last year by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile.
The asteroid caught the attention of astronomers when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list four days later. The Sentry list includes any known near-Earth asteroids which have a non-zero probability of impacting our planet in the future.
