According to a new report by the California New Car Dealers Association, the growth rate of all electric vehicles in California was stagnant, and went up by only 1% in 2024. The number of total registrations for electric cars dropped by o.3% from 2023.
While electric cars saw steady growth in California since the 2000’s, the state didn’t see a drastic rise in sales until 2020. Between 2018 and 2020, sales lingered at around 7%-8% of all new cars sold being electric. However, in September 2020, Gavin Newsom issued an order of a staggered plan requiring that 35% of all new cars sold in California in 2026 to be electric or hybrids, 68% by 2030, and 100% by 2035. As recently as last year, the California Energy Commission (CEC) said the state was on track to be all electric by 2035.
While California saw incredible growth of electric cars for the first several years of the 2020s, partially because of Governor Gavin Newsom’s law to ban the sale of gasoline powered cars beginning in 2035, recent months have seen something of a downturn. Electric car sales dipped for the first time in a decade in the final quarter of 2023. According to the California New Car Dealers Association, the sale of electric vehicles did in fact continue surging in the first half of 2023. However, by the third quarter, sales crested. And in the 4th quarter of 2023, the number of new ZEV cars sold for the final three months of the year was only 89,933, a drop of 10.2%.
While experts hoped for a rebound in 2024, all electric sales instead flatlined. In Q2 2024, the growth rate of electric cars fell by 1.2% compared to Q2 2023. Even worse, the 2026 goal of having a 35% market share of electric cars became farther out of reach as the market share stayed the same at 21.4% for the second quarter in a row. It was also far below the 21.8% seen in Q2 2023.
This led to Friday, when the California New Car Dealers Association unveiled all Q4 2024 statistics. According to the group, the total number of new electric vehicle registrations went down by 0.3% from Q4 2023. In terms of figures, it went from 1,764,767 of registered EV vehicles to 1,759,141. While the group did predict that the total number of registered electric vehicles would top 1.8 million this year, the total number will still be far below the 1.89 million recorded in 2019 and the peak number of 2.03 million registrations seen in 2016.
In addition, the report found that overall registrations for electric vehicles are still floundering. Governor Gavin Newsom’s 2035 gas powered vehicle ban mandate, which is currently being challenged by the Trump administration, set a 35% electric vehicle registration benchmark for 2026, and a 41% benchmark for 2027. However, in the last few years, the figure has stayed stagnant between 21% and 23%, with Q4 2024 continuing the trend by electric cars having only 21.3% of all registered cars in California. Compared to Q4 2023, it stayed stagnant, as it was 21.3% then too.
Should the 35% level not be reached by then, carmakers will face penalties of $20,000 per noncompliant vehicle sold, or greatly reduce the number of available gas-powered vehicles. However, should the mandate be erased by the federal government, electric vehicle percentages become moot.
Electric car sales stay stagnant in 2024
Also of note in the report was the surging popularity of hybrids. Registrations for all alternative powertrains reached 40.2 percent for the year and 42.2 percent in Q4. Notably, hybrids made up the ground lost by ZEVs, gaining 2.4 percentage points in Q4, matching the 2.4 point decline in ZEV registrations. It shows that California drivers want alternatives to gas-powered cars still, but are preferring hybrids more and more rather than straight electric.
Overall, the data shows that demand in California for electric cars has not changed all that much, with consumers opting instead for hybrids over electric cars when given a choice, and ultimately still preferring gas-powered vehicles.
“The data don’t lie,” said California New Car Dealers Association President Brian Maas on Friday. “The demand doesn’t match what the mandate requires. It’s just that simple. Automakers won’t pay the fines. They’ll opt for inventory control, possibly limiting the sale of gas- and diesel-powered pickups. Dealers in neighboring states like Arizona and Nevada could become flooded with gas-powered vehicles, making it difficult for Californians to find their preferred cars and likely driving up prices.”
The California Energy Commission (CEC), meanwhile, maintained that electric vehicles were the way to go despite the statistics showing otherwise.
“California is proud to lead the country in zero-emission vehicle sales as the global market continues to innovate and surge,” added the CEC. “The rapid pace of EV adoption worldwide has become a building block of a new industrial policy shaping California’s future economy.”
Automotive industry experts, however, were far more pessimistic.
“This is no surprise,” explained Veronica Deer, an auto industry analyst who focuses on the electric market, to the Globe on Friday. “Without cheaper prices, improved range, improved battery life or improved charge times, the number of electric cars hit a ceiling. Only a certain percentage of people want to drive them or buy them. Economics trumps forced adoption here. And when push comes to shove, like they said, Californians might start buying gas powered vehicles behind state lines if they can’t get them here. Or buy online and ship them here.
“Like I’ve said before, like any dealer will tell you, like any buyer will tell you. They are not ready for electric cars. People need time to get used to it and technology needs to improve. And like we’re screaming until we are blue in the face, if you have to push anything, push hybrids. Buyers want them, and the more sold, the cheaper they can be. They get used to those, and then electric. It is such a simple model based on consumer demand, economics, and technological growth. Yet here is California saying they think that this way that obviously isn’t working is the best way to go.
“If you are looking for a silver-lining, these stats may just convince more people to let the federal government end the 2035 mandate in California. What, 75% of Californians oppose the ban? These figures just confirm what anyone in the industry knew. California doesn’t know what it is doing.”
