A proposed regional transportation tax has marginal support from likely voters in the Bay Area, and a weaker endorsement from those north of the Golden Gate, according to a new poll.
The survey for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission asked a sampling of voters likely to participate in the 2026 election to review three tax frameworks designed to save transit agencies from financial collapse.
The results were presented Feb. 14 at the meeting of the joint legislation committee of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Association of Bay Area Governments.
Only one scenario provides an option for up to nine Bay Area counties to be included in a regional measure. In this framework, revenue would be generated through a half-cent sales tax plus a parcel tax lasting 30 years. Marin, Sonoma, Napa, Solano and Santa Clara counties would choose whether to participate.
This is the only scenario that respondents in those counties were asked to review.
Of the 200 respondents in Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Solano counties, 64% agreed money is needed to support transit agencies. However, only 44% supported the hybrid tax format.
When adding responses from the rest of the 2,850 people surveyed, 51% supported it. That dropped to 44% after respondents were presented with opposing arguments.
“Is it safe to say that if the North Bay is included in this measure … that it might not pass because of that?” Pat Eklund, a member of the Novato City Council and the joint legislation committee, asked staff during the meeting.
“The North Bay is less supportive than any other areas,” said Ruth Bernstein, chief executive officer of EMC Research, the firm that conducted the poll.
“We’re a long way off from any election,” Bernstein said. “We’re hesitant to say at this point will it win or lose, but certainly we’re seeing lower support in the North Bay.”
Marin County Supervisor Stephanie Moulton-Peters, who also serves on the legislative committee, said the renewal of a quarter-cent sales tax for Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit is a priority for the two counties. The train is largely reliant on the tax, which brings in about $51 million annually for operations.
The agency failed in 2020 to gain voter support for a 30-year extension, which is critical for the future of the rail line. The tax expires in 2029, and SMART officials have said it needs a renewal approved by 2028 at the latest.
“I think that’s probably foremost in people’s minds, and therefore a regional measure probably doesn’t rate quite as high,” Moulton-Peters said.
“We are monitoring the MTC effort closely,” Eddy Cumins, general manager of SMART, said when asked about the proposed regional tax. “But the SMART Board of Directors has not yet made any decisions regarding the SMART sales tax renewal.”
Moulton-Peters said North Bay voters are also motivated to fix things like potholes and traffic congestion.
In 2018, Marin voters also passed a 30-year sales tax for transportation and transit.
About 55% of a half-cent sales tax providing about $27 million in annual revenue is used for Marin Transit bus operations, with the rest supporting other transportation efforts. The tax expires in 2049.
For MTC’s proposal, the other two tax frameworks would only apply to Contra Costa, Alameda, San Francisco and San Mateo counties.
The first option is a 10-year half-cent sales tax that would be evenly applied to those counties. The poll found that a 54% majority of respondents in those counties were in favor.
The other scenario is a variable rate tax, where Contra Costa, Alameda and San Mateo would be taxed at a half-cent rate and San Francisco at $0.875 for 11 years. The proposal had 55% support in these counties.
“I want to start with the good news headline, which is the measure is not impossible,” said Rebecca Kaplan, the Oakland mayor’s appointee on the joint committee.
“I think there was some concern given the public attitudes over the last few months,” Kaplan said. “But actually this does say there are paths that can work to pass something. A two-thirds vote threshold does not appear possible based on these numbers, but a 50% threshold does.”
Lowering the approval threshold to a simple majority would require a large effort by voters to place a measure on the ballot via a citizens initiative petition.
MTC’s regional tax measure has been more than a year in the making. The primary thrust of the measure is to shore up Bay Area Rapid Transit, the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency and Caltrain, which face a financial cliff stemming from telecommuting during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Last year, a similar effort was sidelined after policymakers failed to build consensus on what to include in the measure. Then a legislative committee took a deep dive into the matter and still came up short of landing on a proposal.
That’s when officials at the MTC decided to conduct this round of polling. The agency also approved policy provisions to include in state legislation that would enable the measure to be placed on a ballot. That included requirements for stronger oversight of transit agencies’ financials.
State Sen. Scott Wiener, a San Francisco Democrat, and Sen. Jesse Arreguin, a Berkeley Democrat, recently introduced Senate Bill 63 to authorize placement of a regional transportation measure on the November 2026 ballot. Wiener had introduced the similar initiative last year.
“These poll results show that public transportation continues to be important to Bay Area residents,” Wiener said. “People understand transit is essential for the Bay Area’s future and that we must not allow our major transit systems to unravel.”
“While we continue our work to evaluate viable revenue options to maintain service, we need to continue educating the public about improvements public transportation providers have been making to the safety, cleanliness and reliability of transit services across the Bay Area,” he said.
