Jeeps arrive at a dealership in Chicago.
U.S. auto sales are expected to increase a couple of percentage points in October 2024 compared with October 2023, when automakers report monthly sales on Friday, Nov. 1
That’s not much of an increase, considering there’s a substantially bigger inventory of unsold new vehicles on dealer lots, and considering incentives are increasing, too, along with inventory.
Dealers say many customers are keeping their vehicles longer, waiting for interest- rate cuts, and for prices to come down from recent highs in late 2022 and early 2023, when new vehicles were more scarce.
New-vehicle inventory at the end of October is estimated at 1.9 million cars and trucks, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. That’s a 25.1% increase vs. October 2023, and 4% higher than September.
In terms of monthly auto sales, the joint forecast is for a total of about 1.3 million cars and trucks in October, an increase of 2.1% vs. October 2023. That’s based on the average daily selling rate.
New-vehicle transaction prices have begun to come down as inventory has gone up, but prices are still high by historical standards.
According to J.D. Power and GlobalData, the average new-vehicle retail transaction price in October is an estimated $44,904. That’s down $739 from October 2023.
Average incentive spending per unit in October is expected to reach $3,149, up 70.5%, or $1,302, vs. October 2023 the joint forecast said.
Separately, Cox Automotive reported a similar forecast for U.S. auto sales in October 2024, of about 1.3 million.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said uncertainty about the election, along with extreme weather events also contributed to the small sales gain in October.
