AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File
The Q1 correction is unfolding. February in a post-election year has been the weakest in the 48-month ‘presidential’ cycle. February 2025 has certainly continued this tradition. The indices are likely to bottom later in March. Cycles have been helpful in technology stock positioning. The “Fab Seven” stocks are the focus. Let us look at four of the seven by making cycle projections into later 2025.
Apple began its correction before most stocks in the technology sector did so. Because Apple began its correction early, it is likely to recover before the other tech equities do. Relative strength bottomed in November. The seasonality shows that the stock is usually strong in the first five months of any year. At present, the monthly price cycle points to a September high.
Apple Monthly Cycle
Apple monthly price cycles point to a strong 2025.
Contrast Apple to NVIDIA. The monthly cycle hit a high in June, signaling a short-term correction into August. The November cycle peak led to the autumn price peak. Note that this high occurred as the company appeared on the cover of Barron’s. This favorable review was a contrary opinion sell signal. The stock has made a marginal new high and has now traced out a pair of lower highs. There is a very short-term cycle low now. But note that this longer-term cycle does not bottom until Q3. The cycle measure suggests underweighting the stock into September when a monthly cycle low forms.
NVIDIA Monthly Cycle
The NViDIA monthly price cycle is still on a sell signal.
The Meta Platforms cycle bottoms now and rallies to months end. The cycle then suggests an irregular trading range to the downside. The stock does not appear to be a stable holding. META is likely to be a trading stock in 2025.
Meta Monthly Cycle
The META cycle indicates a weak 2025.
The monthly Netflix cycle bottoms now. The stock appears poised to rally into late June. This stock can be overweighted. Relative strength bottomed in 2022 and continues to rise. This is one of the strongest stocks of the Fab Seven. Netflix is likely to extend its relative leadership.
Netflix Monthly Cycle
The monthly cycle bottoms now.
