The Labour government wants to involve the automotive industry in how to phase out new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030 gradually. The Department for Transport writes that the consultation “will give much-needed clarity to industry.” Moreover, it will “give confidence to consumers considering making the switch and will invigorate the charging infrastructure sector that is already putting billions of pounds of investment into our networks.”
Creating confidence is also appropriate given the zigzag course in the UK: In 2020, the government under Boris Johnson decided to no longer allow new vehicles with combustion engines from as early as 2030. In September 2023, former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (Tories) then postponed the planned date for the phase-out to 2035, citing the high costs for families and small businesses as the reason. Just a few days later, however, the government announced that it intended to stick to the previously defined ZEV mandate (‘zero emission vehicle mandate’), which stipulates stricter annual sales quotas. The new U-turn came in 2024 following the election of the new Labour government. Unsurprisingly, as the Labour Party had already announced during the election campaign that it would restore the original deadline of 2030 if it won.
The reinstated ban on combustion engines for 2030 should thus be non-negotiable in the consultations that have now started. However, there should be room for negotiation within the ZEV mandate, as was already leaked in December. The ZEV mandate specifically stipulates that at least 22 per cent of cars sold in 2024 must be locally emission-free – i.e. with a battery-electric drive or fuel cell. A target of ten per cent was set for vans. The quota increases every year until the specified phase-out date. Manufacturers who do not meet the target must either pay a fine or buy ‘ZEV certificates’ from car manufacturers who exceed their target. However, further ‘flexibilities’ could be permissible. The European Union is also currently considering such flexibilities. The threat of fines for car manufacturers who do not meet the CO2 target in 2025 could be suspended in the EU this year. The background to this is that the already heavily burdened car industry should not come under even greater pressure as a result of the legislation.
In the UK, too, demand for electric cars is currently not as strong as expected – and has been factored in by the industry. Ford is one of the OEMs warning against overly strict regulations. In November, the car manufacturer explained that producing and selling more electric cars without the necessary demand “just doesn’t work.” Stellantis also threatened to take action if the regulations in the UK are enforced unchanged.
British industry association representatives have been rather vague in the run-up to the consultations. Edmund King, President of the British Automobile Association (AA), for example, commented that drivers are hesitant about the transition, but not opposed to it – “this consultation should define the firm route to zero emissions.”
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), says “it is imperative we get an urgent resolution” to adapt the mandate and help car manufacturers achieve the goal – “backed by bold incentives to stimulate demand.”
